Weather for our departure on 10/30

Hi All,

We use a service called Commander's Weather to get very accurate forcasting information during out trip. They provide service to many racing and cruising boats world wide and greatly improve our safety by making sure that we are not out in the worst conditions. Here is what they have to say about our departure tomorrow:

To: Walid Abuhaidar on SY "Sandwitch"
From: Commanders' Weather Corporation, 603-882-6789
Route: Newport, RI to Bermuda then St. Barts, Venezuela, Panama
Depart: approx 0800edt Thu, October 30, 2008
Prepared: 0915edt Wed, October 29, 2008

Summary…Very rough conditions offshore today will improve significantly by Thursday with a good pattern to head south!

1) The current weather map features a deep gale centered across southern Quebec.
a) Central pressures are around 980mb or 28.95 inches.
2) An occluded frontal system is well east off the coast and headed for Newfoundland.
3) High pressure is well back to the west across the central U.S. with somewhat of a weak ridge axis extending east across northern Florida and passing the northern Bahamas just to the north near 29n and out into the central Atlantic.
4) Rough weather will continue through tonight offshore with strong westerly gales of 25-35 knots gusting into the 40s along with seas up to 12-18 feet!
4) By Thursday the gale will have moved way north up into the Davis Strait and high pressure will be building into the eastern U.S.
5) A weak trough will be off the east coast and this will have clocked winds into the WNW to NW by Thursday morning.
6) There will still be a fresh NW breeze for much of Thursday with the high building into the eastern U.S. compressing the gradient off the east coast.
a) Expect wind speeds in the 15-25 knot range all day Thursday.
7) The high will then build S and SW into the SE U.S. on Friday but with a ridge axis extending ENE from the high center running off the Mid Atlantic coast and up to Nova Scotia.
a) This will lead to decreasing winds with speeds dropping into the low to mid teens and direction
mainly NW to NNW.
8) On Saturday the high pressure ridge axis will have shifted southward kind of moving along with you and will be oriented mainly west to east along 36-35n while another cold front comes SE through New England.
a) This will keep winds on the light side and mainly from the N to NE.
b) Speeds look to be mainly 10 knots or less and this will make for a good Gulf Stream crossing.
9) Light air conditions will continue into early Sunday with the ridge still close by, however this ridge will be weakening and falling apart by late Sunday with a new area of high pressure building into New England.
a) This will be another strong high like the others this past few weeks that have come down from
Canada.
b) Also on Sunday the tail end of that cold front will pass just to your N and NE.
10) Expect this high to start increasing the trades Sunday night and into Monday with speeds coming up to 20-30 knots by Monday PM around Bermuda.
a) Direction will be NE initially and then will clock to more ENE by late Monday.
11) Seas will start out around 5-9 feet on Thursday with a NW swell and some wind wave chop, then will come down significantly by Friday and will be low for crossing the Gulf Stream (around 3-6 feet) and remain low into most of this weekend, then as the trades increase early next week expect seas to begin building again and could reach as high as 8-12 feet next Tuesday.
12) General weather should be mainly quiet with high pressure in control for the most part.
a) However you may see some showers on Sunday with the tail end of that cold front.
13) Please keep us well advised of your progress and check in with us and let us know when you need any updates enroute.


Routing:
1) Recommend coming mainly S out of Newport aiming for around 37 30n/70 15w to enter the Gulf Stream in a favorable location.
a) East of that waypoint you could have foul current and you would also get into foul current from a
warm eddy centered near 39n/69w.
2) Have you exiting the Gulf Stream around 36 40n/69 50w.
3) Once south of the Gulf Stream you can aim directly for Bermuda.
5) Estimated positions listed below.

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is EDT/EST

Wed, October 29 – offshore Newport
14: 250-270/25-35, gust 40-45
20: 270-290/20-30, gust 35-40
Weather: Variable clouds with a chance of sprinkles
Seas 12-18 feet, W swell and very rough wind wave chop!

Thu, October 30
02: 270-290/20-25
08: 280-300/15-25 approx departure
14: 300-320/18-25
20: 320-340/15-25
Weather: Variably to partly cloudy
Seas decreasing to 5-9 feet, W to NW swell and wind wave chop

Fri, October 31
02: 330-350/15-22
08: 340-360/12-18 near 38 50n/70 35w
14: 340-360/10-18
20: 330-350/10-15 approaching Gulf Stream
Weather: Partly cloudy to fair
Seas down to 3-6 feet, NW swell

Sat, November 1
02: 330-350/ 7-14 on Gulf Stream
08: 330-350/ 7-15 near 36 10n/69 40w, south of Gulf Stream
14: 360-030/ 5-12
20: 020-040/ 5-10
Weather: Fair
Seas 3-6 feet, NW to N swell

Sun, November 2
02: 030-060/ 5-10
07: 050-070/ 5-12 near 33 30n/66 30w
13: 040-060/ 7-15
19: 040-060/12-18 near Bermuda
Weather: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers, possibly a squall
Seas 3-5 feet, N to NE swell

Mon, November 3 – vicinity Bermuda
07: 050-070/18-25
19: 060-080/20-30
Weather: Variable clouds with a chance of scattered squally showers
Seas building to 6-9 feet, increasing NE to ENE swell and wind wave chop